A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
